Weekly Currency Market Analysis


Market Outlook
The Rupee, which has gained more than 5% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, is seen appreciating further in near-term. The extent of the rupee’s strength, however, will largely depend on how much the Reserve Bank of India allows it to appreciate.
Foreign portfolio investors have bought Indian shares and bonds worth more than $17 billion so far in 2018. Since the beginning of the year, the rupee has gained from a low of 68.23 against the dollar to a high of 63.93. On Friday, the local currency closed at 64.44 against the greenback.

Fundamental News
• Dollar sinks to 7-month low after soft U.S. jobs report.
• Asian currencies firm in narrow trade; yuan eases after 4-day rally.
• Japanese Household Spending Declines for 14th Straight Month in April.
• Manufacturing in U.S. Settles In at Solid Pace of Expansion.

Global Updates
• UK Construction growth rebounds to 17-month high in May, driven by house building.
• French Household consumption expenditure on goods bounced back in April (+0.5%).
• US Consumer Confidence Drops To Weakest Since Feb As ‘Soft’ Data Slump Continues.
• Japan’s April Retail Sales Rise at the Fastest Pace in Two Years.
• Rising U.S. Jobless Claims Mark Pause in Labor-Market Expansion.
• German Retail turnover in April 2017: –0.9% in real terms on April 2016.

USDINR last week showed volatile movements and moved in a range. The currency pair has been constantly facing resistance near the mark of 65.0000 and closing above it can provide it strength whereas 64.4000 is seen as immediate support for it.

EURINR last week did not weaken much rather showed a slight pull back towards the resistance. If the bulls continue for the pair then it may immediate resistance towards the mark of 73.0000 while 72.1500 is seen as important support for the currency pair.

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